Energetic trade-offs in migration decision-making, reproductive effort and subsequent parental care in a long-distance migratory bird.

Migratory species trade-off long-distance movement with survival and reproduction, but the spatio-temporal scales at which these decisions occur are relatively unknown. Technological and statistical advances allow fine-scale study of animal decision-making, improving our understanding of possible causes and therefore conservation management. We quantified effects of reproductive preparation during spring migration on subsequent breeding outcomes, breeding outcomes on autumn migration characteristics and autumn migration characteristics on subsequent parental survival in Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris). These are long-distance migratory birds with an approximately 50% population decline from 1999 to 2022. We deployed GPS-acceleration devices on adult females to quantify up to 5 years of individual decision-making throughout the annual cycle. Weather and habitat-use affected time spent feeding and overall dynamic body acceleration (i.e. energy expenditure) during spring and autumn. Geese that expended less energy and fed longer during spring were more likely to successfully reproduce. Geese with offspring expended more energy and fed for less time during autumn, potentially representing adverse fitness consequences of breeding. These behavioural comparisons among Greenland white-fronted geese improve our understanding of fitness trade-offs underlying abundance. We provide a reproducible framework for full annual cycle modelling using location and behaviour data, applicable to similarly studied migratory animals.

Differing drivers of decline within a migratory metapopulation has implications for future conservation.

Researchers generally ascribe demographic drivers in a single sub-population and presume they are representative. With this information, practitioners implement blanket conservation measures across metapopulations to reverse declines. However, such approaches may not be appropriate in circumstances where sub-populations are spatiotemporally segregated and exposed to different environmental variation. The Greenland White-fronted Goose, Anser albifrons flavirostris, is an Arctic-nesting migrant that largely comprises two sub-populations (delineated by northerly and southerly breeding areas in west Greenland). The metapopulation has declined since 1999 but this trend is only mirrored in one sub-population and the causes of this disparity are unclear. Here we compare the drivers and trends of productivity in both sub-populations using population- and individual-level analysis. We examined how temperature and precipitation influenced population-level reproductive success over 37 years and whether there was a change in the relationship when metapopulation decline commenced. In addition, we used biologging devices to remotely classify incubation events for 86 bird-years and modelled how phenology and environmental conditions influenced individual-level nest survival. Correlations between reproductive success and temperature/precipitation on the breeding grounds have weakened for both sub-populations. This has resulted in lower reproductive success for the northerly, but not southerly breeding sub-population, which at the individual-level appears to be driven by lower nest survival. Earlier breeding ground arrival and less precipitation during incubation increased nest survival in the northerly breeding population, while no factors examined were important for the southerly breeding sub-population. This suggests reproductive success is driven by different factor(s) in the two sub-populations. Demographic rates and their environmental drivers differ between the sub-populations examined here and consequently we encourage further decomposition of demography within metapopulations. This is important for conservation practitioners to consider as bespoke conservation strategies, targeting different limiting factors, may be required for different sub-populations.

Time-varying effects of local weather on behavior and probability of breeding deferral in two Arctic-nesting goose populations.

Arctic-nesting geese face energetic challenges during spring migration, including ecological barriers and weather conditions (e.g., precipitation and temperature), which in long-lived species can lead to a trade-off to defer reproduction in favor of greater survival. We used GPS location and acceleration data collected from 35 greater white-fronted geese of the North American midcontinent and Greenland populations at spring migration stopovers, and novel applications of Bayesian dynamic linear models to test daily effects of minimum temperature and precipitation on energy expenditure (i.e., overall dynamic body acceleration, ODBA) and proportion of time spent feeding (PTF), then examined the daily and additive importance of ODBA and PTF on probability of breeding deferral using stochastic antecedent models. We expected distinct responses in behavior and probability of breeding deferral between and within populations due to differences in stopover area availability. Time-varying coefficients of weather conditions were variable between ODBA and PTF, and often did not show consistent patterns among birds, indicating plasticity in how individuals respond to conditions. An increase in antecedent ODBA was associated with a slightly increased probability of deferral in midcontinent geese but not Greenland geese. Probability of deferral decreased with increased PTF in both populations. We did not detect any differentially important time periods. These results suggest either that movements and behavior throughout spring migration do not explain breeding deferral or that ecological linkages between bird decisions during spring and subsequent breeding deferral were different between populations and across migration but occurred at different time scales than those we examined.

Using accelerometry to compare costs of extended migration in an arctic herbivore.

Understanding how individuals manage costs during the migration period is challenging because individuals are difficult to follow between sites; the advent of hybrid Global Positioning System-acceleration (ACC) tracking devices enables researchers to link spatial and temporal attributes of avian migration with behavior for the first time ever. We fitted these devices on male Greenland white-fronted geese Anser albifrons flavirostris wintering at 2 sites (Loch Ken, Scotland and Wexford, Ireland) to understand whether birds migrating further during spring fed more on wintering and staging areas in advance of migration episodes. Although Irish birds flew significantly further (ca. 300 km) than Scottish birds during spring, their cumulative hours of migratory flight, flight speed during migration, and overall dynamic body ACC (i.e., a proxy for energy expenditure) were not significantly different. Further, Irish birds did not feed significantly more or expend significantly more energy in advance of migration episodes. These results suggest broad individual plasticity in this species, although Scottish birds arriving on breeding areas in Greenland with greater energy stores (because they migrated less) may be better prepared for food scarcity, which might increase their reproductive success.

Should I stay or should I go? Fitness costs and benefits of prolonged parent-offspring and sibling-sibling associations in an Arctic-nesting goose population.

Theory predicts persistence of long-term family relationships in vertebrates will occur until perceived fitness costs exceed benefits to either parents or offspring. We examined whether increased breeding probability and survival were associated with prolonged parent-offspring and sibling-sibling relationships in a long-lived Arctic migrant herbivore, the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris). Although offspring associated with parents for 1-13 years, 79 % of these associations lasted two or less years. Only 65 (9.9 %) of the 656 marked offspring bred once in their lifetime, and just 16 (2.4 %) bred twice or more. The probability of birds with siblings breeding successfully in a subsequent year was credibly greater than that of independent birds at ages 5, 6, and 7. Survival of offspring with parents was credibly greater than that of independent/nonbreeder birds at all possible ages (i.e., ages 2-7+). A cost-benefit matrix model utilizing breeding and survival probabilities showed that staying with family groups was favored over leaving until age 3, after which there were no credible differences between staying and leaving strategies until the oldest ages, when leaving family groups was favored. Thus, most birds in this study either departed family groups early (e.g., at age 2, when the "stay" strategy was favored) or as predicted by our cost-benefit model (i.e., at age 3). Although extended family associations are a feature of this population, we contend that the survival benefits are not sufficient enough to yield clear fitness benefits, and associations only persist because parents and offspring mutually benefit from their persistence.

Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink.

Demographic links among fragmented populations are commonly studied as source-sink dynamics, whereby source populations exhibit net recruitment and net emigration, while sinks suffer net mortality but enjoy net immigration. It is commonly assumed that large, persistent aggregations of individuals must be sources, but this ignores the possibility that they are sinks instead, buoyed demographically by immigration. We tested this assumption using Bayesian integrated population modelling of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) at their largest wintering site (Wexford, Ireland), combining capture-mark-recapture, census and recruitment data collected from 1982 to 2010. Management for this subspecies occurs largely on wintering areas; thus, study of source-sink dynamics of discrete regular wintering units provides unprecedented insights into population regulation and enables identification of likely processes influencing population dynamics at Wexford and among 70 other Greenland white-fronted goose wintering subpopulations. Using results from integrated population modelling, we parameterized an age-structured population projection matrix to determine the contribution of movement rates (emigration and immigration), recruitment and mortality to the dynamics of the Wexford subpopulation. Survival estimates for juvenile and adult birds at Wexford and adult birds elsewhere fluctuated over the 29-year study period, but were not identifiably different. However, per capita recruitment rates at Wexford in later years (post-1995) were identifiably lower than in earlier years (pre-1995). The observed persistence of the Wexford subpopulation was only possible with high rates of immigration, which exceeded emigration in each year. Thus, despite its apparent stability, Wexford has functioned as a sink over the entire study period. These results demonstrate that even large subpopulations can potentially be sinks, and that movement dynamics (e.g. immigration) among winters can dramatically obscure key processes driving subpopulation size. Further, novel population models which integrate capture-mark-recapture, census and recruitment data are essential to correctly ascribing source-sink status and accurately informing development of site-safeguard networks.